The Future of
Unmanned Aircraft Systems
Scott Leishman
Embry Riddle Aeronautical
University-Worldwide
ASCI 637
ASCI 637
When I
think of what the future holds for unmanned aircraft I begin to think about
integration, what impact it will have, what we could expect to see, and future legislation.
In addition to this though, I also think about the growth of this market and
its potential economic impact. A few years ago the idea of having “drones” in
the airspace was a fantasy, and now it has become a reality, from keeping constant
surveillance on our borders, to delivering beer to those who don’t want to go
out to get it. According to the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems
International (AUVSI), these futuristic UAS often seen as a privacy threat will
create $82 billion in economic impact over the 10-year span from 2015 to 2025. In
response to outcries from industry experts that the U.S. is lagging in the
international market, Fairfax, Va.-based consultant Teal Group projects
industry sales from 2014 onward will total to $89 billion by 2023, yet the U.S.
has not even entered that market commercially (Bryan, 2014) . Other areas of the industry
that could see a big boost include areas of detect-sense-and-avoid technologies.
In the United States this is one major issue regarding integration. The FAA
recently made an announcement that makes it mandatory to register drones. On
December 14, 2015 the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA) announced a streamlined and user-friendly web-based
aircraft registration process for owners of small unmanned aircraft (UAS)
weighing more than 0.55 pounds (250 grams) and less than 55 pounds (approx. 25
kilograms) including payloads such as on-board cameras (Federal
Aviation Administration, 2015) . With this
registration requirement and an improvement of detect-sense-and-avoid
technologies we can realistically expect legislation to loosen its current view
on drone use, but until they have full integration of the airspace, many
benefits will be lost. In the future most nearly the next 5-10 years we could
expect drones to serve in roles that they are not currently operating in,
things such as search and rescue, firefighting, non-lethal police force, and
other areas. For now the future is uncertain, but one constant that remains is
that drones are a world changer, and as new legislation as created and new
technology emerges, we can expect to see the economic impacts and benefits associated
with drone use.
“Many scientists parallel unmanned
systems today to where we were with ‘horseless carriages’ back in 1909-1910, at
the start of something so big we can only wrap our minds around what it is not.
That is, automobiles and the resulting mechanization didn’t just become change
industry and warfare, it also […] led to the requirement of new laws, ‘traffic
laws.’ The point here is that every so often in history, the emergence of a new
technology changes our world.”
– Peter Singer, Ph.D. Senior
Fellow and Director 21st Century Defense Initiative The Brookings Institution
Bryan, C. (2014, April 22). Avionics Magazine.
Retrieved from The Future of Unmanned Flight:
http://www.aviationtoday.com/av/military/The-Future-of-Unmanned-Flight_81910.html#.VndO4BUrKhc
Federal Aviation Administration. (2015, December 14).
Press Release – FAA Announces Small UAS Registration Rule. Retrieved
from https://www.faa.gov/news/press_releases/news_story.cfm?newsId=19856
Statement of
Peter Singer, Ph.D., Senior Fellow and Director, 21st Century Defense
Initiative, The Brookings Institution, before the U.S. House
of Representatives, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Subcommittee
on National Security and Foreign Affairs, March 23, 2010.
